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I think it's interesting to note that France has been trying to export this 3 strikes concept. The EU culture ministers recently voted to reject such an approach to copyright enforcement on the internet: http://opendotdotdot.blogspot.com/2008/11/three-strikes-and-youre-out-struck-down.html

The technological arms race between infringers and state enforcement agencies that this type of harsh copyright regime could bring about is troubling. While I think you put a bit too much faith in the average infringer's ability to obfuscate IP-address based identification, the more important concern is that the French government will react by insisting on overbroad technological measures for detecting and stopping copyright infringement.

An arms race between infringers and government is likely to erode internet users privacy further and hinder the legitimate uses of P2P? platforms, including their free-speech enhancing uses.

-- AndreiVoinigescu - 26 Nov 2008