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| | Obama's Experience Problem |
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< | -- By AdamCarlis - 26 Feb 2008 |
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> | -- By AdamCarlis - 29 Feb 2008 |
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Introduction |
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< | Clinton's attacks on Obama have raised questions about his experience that will be amplified by McCain throughout the general election. Given Obama's actual experience, age, and race, it will be very difficult for him to assuage voters' concerns about his readiness to govern.
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- So what ... there are many factors in a presidential campaign, why is this issue important?
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> | Clinton has raised questions about Obama's experience that will be amplified by McCain during the general election. Given Obama's actual experience, age, and race, it will be difficult for him to assuage voters' concerns about his readiness to govern; potentially costing him crucial votes what will likely be a close race. |
| | The Experience Argument
The Meaning of "Experience" |
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< | In politics, "experience" can mean any number of things and so it means precisely nothing, making it a winning word for politicians crafting a message the masses can support. It works because it's versatile. The word's ambiguity allows voters to interpret the candidates' message according to their own worldview. Obama uses the term "quarter century of experience" to denigrate old man McCain and Americans picture an aging Washington insider. Clinton raises her own "experience" as a foil to newcomer Obama and those same Americans picture a young man not quite ready for the oval office. Voters are allowed to define the word and they do so to the benefit of the speaker. Unfortunately for Obama, the experience mantle is being carried by Clinton and McCain, leaving him as the inexperienced foil to their "ready on day one." |
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> | "Experience" can mean any number of things and so it means precisely nothing. Therefore, it is a winning word for politicians crafting a message the masses can support. It works because it's vague. Its ambiguity allows voters to interpret the candidates' message according to their own worldview. Obama uses the term "quarter century of experience" to denigrate old man McCain and Americans picture an aging Washington insider. Clinton raises her own "experience" as a foil to Obama and those same Americans picture a young man not quite ready for the oval office. Voters are allowed to define the word and the speaker benefits. Unfortunately for Obama, the experience mantle is being carried by Clinton and McCain, leaving him as the inexperienced ying to their "ready on day one" yang. |
| | The Liability of Inexperience |
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< | No one brags about their inexperience on the campaign trail. It is not a characteristic sought by voters choosing the next president. In any election cycle, being the inexperienced candidate is a handicap. That reality is heightened during this campaign because of the perceived inexperience and subsequent failures the Bush administration as well as heightened security concerns drummed up since September 11, 2001. Now, more than any time in recent memory, being pegged as inexperienced will cost a candidate votes. |
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> | In any election cycle, being the inexperienced candidate is a handicap. Because of the perceived inexperience and subsequent failure of the Bush administration, that reality is heightened during this campaign. Security concerns drummed up since September 11 and a crumbling economy only heighten the public's desire for an "experienced" candidate. Being seen otherwise will cost votes. Unfortunately for Obama, voters see both Clinton and McCain as more experienced. |
| | Experience in the General Election |
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< | The RNC has released their talking points for the general election. They plan to pick up where Clinton left off, hammering Obama on experience and questioning his readiness to serve as commander in chief. While these claims didn't slow Obama down in the primary, McCain? is better positioned to raise these issues given his lengthy time in Congress, well-known military service, and nine additional months to hammer away.
* This doesn't mean that he will be more effective. What risks are their in raising inexperience for McCain that did not exist for Clinton? |
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> | While Clinton's attacks couldn't prevent Obama from claiming frontrunner status in the Democratic primary, McCain’s lengthy time in Congress, popular military service, and nine additional months to hammer away give him an advantage Clinton lacked. Unlike Clinton, whose own experience has been questioned (and Here and Here), McCain, with nearly 30 years of Congressional experience, is assumed to be ready for the job. Also, his "maverick" persona allows him to acquire experience without being portrayed as a Washington insider or party crony. Finally, as a white male, he fits the mold of every former president. As a result, portraying Obama as inexperienced will be easier for McCain that it was for Clinton. |
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< | As Karl Rove has shown, all it takes to make a charge stick against a Democrat is a little bit of truth, a willingness to obscure the issue, and a relentlessly focus and disciplined attack. Just as they questioned Max Cleland's patriotism, convinced the American public that there was a pre-war link between Al Qaeda and Iraq, and turned John Kerry into a waffling opportunist, they will exploit the public perception of Obama's readiness for the job.
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- This reads like a partisan attack and an unfounded assertion, rather than a logic-based argument.
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> | Additionally, as Karl Rove has shown, all it takes to make a charge stick is a little bit of truth, a willingness to obscure the issue, and a disciplined attack. Just as the Republicans questioned Max Cleland's patriotism, convinced the American public that there was a pre-war link between Al Qaeda and Iraq, and turned John Kerry into a waffling opportunist, they will exploit the public perception of Obama's readiness for the job. |
| | Barriers to Overcoming the Criticism |
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< | Current Perceptions
Obama starts behind the eight ball. Clinton earned 94% of voters in Virginia's open Democratic primary who cited experience as their top issue. While currently the economy, health care, and the war on terrorism rank as the top political issues of the campaign, recent polls and the past two presidential elections indicate that the race may come down to a few votes in a single swing state. If that is the case, the public's perception of Obama's readiness cold be the difference in the election.
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- This feels out of place. I need a transistion between this paragraph in the next or simply to cut this thing out. At the very least, it needs to be said in fewer words.
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| | Obama's Inexperience |
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< | Obama's record is too thin for him to take the issue head on. While his resume is comparable to Lincoln's, when standing next to John McCain? , who was in a POW camp while Obama was in grade school, it might be hard for voters to see the comparison. The Obama campaign has, instead, tried to shift the argument from "experience" to "judgment." While perhaps "masquing treason," the voters thus far have seemed to buy it.
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- This doesn't seem to be giving enough deference to the very real questions about Obama's experience. It is true he was able to slide past those questions by averting the question, but will that continue to work? What happens if he is forced to tackle the issue head on?
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> | Obama's record is too thin for him to tackle the issue head on. Instead, his campaign has tried to shift the argument from "experience" to "judgment." While perhaps "masquing treason," the voters, thus far, have given him the benefit of the doubt. However, if the long campaign prevents him from dodging the issue altogether, even his best defense (a comparison to Lincoln) acknowledges his inexperience and could cost him votes. Unlike during the Democratic primary, where real questions could be raised about Clinton's readiness, a head to head resume battle clearly favors McCain and could be Obama's undoing. |
| | Obama's Age |
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< | When the generation that votes in this country was at Woodstock, Obama was eight years old. It is hard to convince people you are ready to lead when you are younger than their little brother. While voters are often willing to look beyond years, both John F. Kennedy Jr. and Bill Clinton had longer resumes than Obama when they ran for the president. Nevertheless, McCain will have to deemphasize age as much as he emphasizes experience. In fact, the more the public is focused on age, the better for Obama; McCain would be the oldest person ever elected to the presidency. |
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> | When the generation that votes in this country was at Woodstock, Obama was eight years old. It is hard to convince people you are ready to lead when you are younger than their little brother. While voters have looked beyond years in past elections, both John F. Kennedy Jr. and Bill Clinton had longer resumes than Obama when they were elected. However, because of questions about his own age, McCain will have to deemphasize the issue as much as he emphasizes experience. Voter focus on age, while an impediment to Obama during the Democratic primary, will likely be at least a draw during the general election (the issue's ability to entrench the perception of Obama as inexperience is balanced by voters’ hesitancy to elect a 72 year old president). |
| | Obama's Race
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< | In a nation with embarrassingly few African Americans in government and backlash against affirmative action engrained into the psyche of white America, it is harder to picture an experienced black man than an experienced white man. Passionate, energetic, intelligent, and well-spoken, maybe, but, experienced, likely not. |
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> | In a nation with embarrassingly few African Americans in government and backlash against affirmative action engrained into the psyche of white America, it is harder to picture an experienced black man than an experienced white man. Passionate, intelligent, and well-spoken, maybe, but, experienced, likely not. Assuming he has to face the experience issue head on, race will make it harder for Obama to convince voters that he is ready to lead. |
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< | Additionally, voting on "experience" can provide cover for people unwilling to vote for a black man. While certainly most people who wouldn't vote for a black person wouldn't support the policies that Obama advocates, there are some Democrats and Independents searching for a socially acceptable reason to justify their anti-Obama vote. These voters will likely cling to the experience issue.
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- I have to depict these voters more convincingly. Now they sound like someone I made up to further my argument.
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> | Additionally, voting on "experience" provides cover for people unwilling to vote for a black man. While most people who vote based on race wouldn't support Obama's policies in the first place, there are some Democrats and Independents searching for a socially acceptable reason to justify their anti-Obama vote. Whether they are the elderly white voters highlighted by the Times or the say one thing, vote the other way racists present in every election that pits a person of color against a white, these voters can use the experience issue to justify their discriminatory vote. |
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< | These voters will be the hardest to persuade. While Obama can plausibly argue that good judgment is more important than lengthy experience or point to popular presidents who were his age and younger when elected, on the race issue he, to borrow from Ghandi, is the change he wants to see in the world. As a result, it will be next to impossible to convince some voters that he is ready and capable until he does it and does it well. Until then, he will be waging an uphill battle to shed the cloud of inexperience that follows his campaign. |
| | Conclusion |
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< | Moving into the general election, Obama, if he is the Democratic nominee, will have an uphill battle convincing the public that he is ready to govern. While tackling the issue head on enabled him to stay afloat during the primary season, given the shifting demographics in the general election and the strengths of the McCain campaign, overcoming the experience question may prove to be too much for Obama. |
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> | Obama can plausibly argue that good judgment trumps lengthy experience and point to popular presidents who were his age (or younger) when elected. However, on race, to borrow from Ghandi, he is the change he wants to see in the world. As a result, it will be next to impossible to convince some voters that he is ready and capable until he does it and does it well. Until then, Obama will be waging an uphill battle to shed the cloud of inexperience that follows his campaign.
While he was able to stay afloat during the primary season, given the shifting demographics in the general election and the strengths of the McCain? campaign, overcoming the experience question may prove too high a hurdle.
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- I am worried that I am no longer saying anything interesting in this essay ...
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